However, the inhabitants of Vault 3 convinced the overseer to keep it sealed for much longer, out of a fear of the dangers outside Vault 3: Vault 3 was a "control vault" that did not have any experiment attached to it, and the overseer was supposed to open it after 20 years. I did some research and I did find out about some vaults that "failed" to complete their experiments/tasks, but not necessarily through rebellion. Are there any vault experiments that have failed, due to rebellion? Still, I do somewhat believe there would of been overseers who doubted the experiment for whatever reason. With their level of technological expertise and pre-war funding, they could have easily emerged to form their own post-war wrote: you for that explanation, +1 for that. If however, there was a personal Vault-Tec vault for the organizations preservation, then I don't see a reason why they couldn't have survived into 2277. If Vault-Tec instead followed the US government to bases such as Poseidon, I feel it is more likely they would have been absorbed into the Enclave. If Vault-Tec members had participated similarly in the Vault program, as overseers or such, I doubt any of them would have emerged to form a large shadow corporation.
Braun, who had been a Vault-Tec scientist before the war. However, unless they did have some dedicated personal vault(s), I don't know if Vault-Tec would continue to operate as it once had. Though the Secret Vault may not be canon, I find it hard to believe a corporation as heavily linked to and funded by the pre-war government as Vault-Tec didn't have some sort of war contingency planned.
I guess it really depends on the scenario.
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